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Weekly wrap-Nifty gains 1.2%; Feb IIP at 9-month low; Infy Q4 nos eyed

The euphoria of pre-election rally helped the Nifty gain 1.2 percent during the truncated week. The index crossed another milestone of 6800 level, but it could not sustain that level due to profit taking in last trading session. Banks, capital goods and metals stocks pushed the index 81.95 points higher to close at 6776.30 for the week while the Sensex surged 269.46 points to 22628.96. Both have seen historic highs at 6819.05 and 22792.49, respectively.

Experts continued to believe the sharemarket will not concentrate on economic data, March quarter earnings (that will begin on April 15 with Infosys) or global cues till the Lok Sabha elections outcome on May 16, its main focus will be general elections. By the end of this weekend, the four (out of nine) phases of elections would have been completed. According to experts, the market still has more steam left to go past 7000 level on the Nifty and 23000 on the Sensex.

It has already priced in 225 seats that are likely to get by BJP-led NDA government but it has not factored in 250+ yet, experts believe. According to the latest strategy report from Edelweiss Financial, the market is yet to factor in a 250+ seat win for BJP.

According to it, a stable government looks certain. Meanwhile, Manishi Raychaudhari, BNP Paribas Securities says the brokerage house is overweight on India with 2014 Sensex target of 24000 . He says an expectation of a stable government at the Centre coupled with weakening of China and Korea’s image as investment hubs remain chief drivers of the rally. “The residual steam in the market has the power to offer 12-15 percent returns from the current elevated levels,??? he adds.

In the same breath, Raychaudhuri reminds that a pick-up in investment cycle will not be immediate although the rally will continue. The market will be shut on Monday for Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti. Meanwhile, the BJP has announced its manifesto for the general elections 2014. After from its main promise to facilitate the construction of a temple in Ayodhya within the framework of the constitution, to reduce inflation and create jobs are top the agenda.

The BJP also promises fiscal discipline but the manifesto was largely silent on the two major tax reforms – goods and services tax (GST) and direct taxes code (DTC).

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