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Weekly wrap:- Nifty ends flat, eyes 6800,IT cos kick off earnings season

sharemarketEquity benchmarks closed on a flat note during the truncated week as Thursday’s 352-point rally offset initial losses. March quarter earnings season kicked off with top four IT companies reporting numbers, while March inflation started northward move.

The 30-Sharemarket  BSE Sensex fell 0.12 point to close at 22628.84 and the Nifty rose 3.10 points to 6779.40 after rallying 1.2 percent last week. There were only three trading session during the week.

It was also a big week for Lok Sabha elections – the fifth phase (the biggest among nine phases) of voting for 121 constituencies across 12 states was held on Thursday, which included all of Karnataka, some parts of Maharashtra and Rajasthan.

Political experts feel this phase may give some indication of general elections outcome that will be announced on May 16. Market experts believe this election excitement will take the benchmarks to newer highs as the day of polls results come closer.

If the outcome shows BJP-led NDA government coming to power with majority then the Nifty has to see more than 7000 level, say experts. “There is really a good possibility of a strong government being formed.

Today the base case is that BJP will be very close to majority on its own, which looks stretched to me. But if that is the case the market will really do very well immediately after the election.

Probably even close to 8000 may not be impossible if there is majority for BJP,??? says UR Bhat, Dalton Capital Advisors. “However, if the results are slightly more disappointing in the sense that BJP is sub 200, then there will be a correction of probably 10 percent,??? he adds. The market will be shut on April 18 for Good Friday.

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s says it can upgrade outlook on India to stable if new government manages economic problems while it can downgrade outlook if economic challenges are not addressed. “New government must address fiscal challenges for outlook upgrade,??? it says in its report.

In case of economic data, March WPI inflation and CPI inflation started rising again and even industrial output (announced on Friday after market hours last week) has seen contraction in February. WPI climbed to 5.70 percent, the highest level since December 2013, as against 4.68 percent in previous month due to higher food, manufacturing and fuel costs while CPI rose to 8.31 percent from 8.03 percent month-on-month.

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